Recent developments about prospective return of Venezuelan crude leave many pondering, what would happen to the Canadian Energy Industry as a result.

Opinions vary (they always do!), but we believe, although Alberta energy will be affected, it is not a mortal blow.

Let’s get the facts together.

Venezuela was producing, before sanctions and nationalization of its Oil and Gas Industry, about 3-3.5 MBOE.

It is safe to assume, up to 3 MBOE are coming back to market, at one point in time – after legal field has been cleared and CAPEX deployed.

We probably are looking at 24 months out, at best; probably more.

Venezuela produces mostly sour, heavy oil, the same type Alberta does from its oil sands. Note we say oil sands – as there is other oil, sweeter and less heavy, that is exported via West Coast. This product is anywhere between 20-25% of total Canadian produced oil, and is under no threat from Venezuela.

2-2.5MBOE from Alberta is heavy grades, going to the US refineries – slightly more than a half estimated to be destined for Mid West, and balance to the Gulf Coast.

Economics of total value chain dictate that it would take much effort to substitute Canadian crude in the Mid West. Canada will likely retain this business, albeit might need to discount the product slightly more.

US Gulf Coast business – around 1 MBOE – is what will be in direct competition with Venezuela and will likely be impacted.

That is, if Canada does nothing to ramp up its exporting infrastructure.

Recall we are talking 2-3 years until the market start feeling Venezuela impact. If Canada acts quickly and decisively on a West Coast pipeline (yes, we know…), much of this heavy crude at risk could be rerouted to Asian refineries.

Net, the Venezuela impact is there and is real. But at the same time, this is a much needed stimulus – and an opportunity – for Canada to diversify its markets and gain from the upcoming shifts.

Canada, as well as many other Oil and Gas producing jurisdictions, suffers from well funded and coordinated climate alarmism.

The latter are extremely effective in invoking public fear and conditioning well meaning public into restrictions on Oil and Gas development and infrastructure projects.

But how well grounded are those concernes in actuals facts?

Turns out, not too much.

Tom Fletcher dissects the issue in Western Standard:

Please read here.

Smart money keeps making bold moves in Albertan Oil and Gas field.

The most recent one is the announced acquisition of Kiwetinohk by Cygnet..

Kiwetinohk is one of the great businesses we followed, and we truly believe in their story and potential.

The deal, expecting to close in December 2025, values the company at CAD $24.75/share.

We started looking at KEC.TO when it was under $10.

Even from the early 2025 (Q2) valuations levels, the all-cash offer from Cygnet represents a +40-50% gain.

And we truly believe there is much, much more runway for this case ahead under new ownership.

We are profoundly happy for Kiwetinohk Team and keep quite a few other promising stories in focus.

By the time you see headlines like this, it is typically too late for a retail investor to chase the train.

But not in this case – the Energy stocks, especially in Canada, are still depressed and undervalued; however, almost every day now brings further evidence the Money flow is shifting its course and becoming ever more conventional energy friendly.

Rodney Garrard calls this “A return to Energy Realism” in his recent article on GeoExPro.

Picking on the news this month published by The Guardian that Lloyds will no longer disadvantage conventional energy insurance, Rodney argues the future policies should be balanced, inlcuding financing appropriate and qualifying conventional Energy, R&D for new high density energy development and support energy transition.

We coulödn’t agree more. In fact, we’ve been saying we need this balance long ago.

Too often ideology drove the decisions and with many (not all!) renewable energy projects unable to show meaningful ROI despite subsidies, favouritism and protection, this could only work in business for so long.

After all, 80% of world’s energy needs are conventional (fossil) energy sources.

And the transition away from it would take a while.

So it only makes sense for the Insurance industry to admit the obvious.

Let’s stay balanced out there.

Just like our Canadian Energy Fund .

For a while Natural Gas was painted with the same brush in Canada as Oil industry – that is dirty, emitting, and environmentally unfriendly.

A lot of this was due to radical politicians at federal level of Canadian government, as well as the most left-leaning provincial governments like PQ or BC.

The media picked up the wind and contributed their own part.

It looks though, that finally, this perception is shifting. Recent Ipsos Poll conducted in BC of all places, shows majority support Natural Gas industry, both as source of domestic heating as well as LNG export development.

If this is BC, imagine the Alberta, Saskatchewan and maybe the rest of the country.

There is even a thought to recognize Natural Gas as a clean energy (something even EU does) and label it a transition fuel, for Natural Gas can play a vital role in converting coal firing power plants, especially in Asia, to a cleaner source, without sacrificing energy availability and affordability.

There is also great progress with Indigenous Nations warming up to more LNG projects on the West Coast – like the most recent Ksi Lisims LNG .

Whether this change of atitude is due to the US attitude change towards their trade partners or anything else is a different matter.

What counts, is that although late to the game, Canada is accelerating fast and is ready to carve out their fair share of world’s growing Natural Gas demand of lkate 2020’s and 2030s – the New Pragmatic Age.

Learn more about our story and talk to us if you want to benefit from this upside.

We said time and time again, one of the benefits of Albertan Conventional Energy is not just its abundance and insatiable demand the wortld has for it; but also the fact that this is (probably) the world’s most ethically produced hydrocarbons.

Think of it:

• Strictest work safety standards
• Cutting edge environmental protection standards (both regulatory and self-governance), unparallel reclamation practices
• Worlds leading Carbon Capture efforts
• Free G7 Economy
• Partnership with Indigenous Nations (in many cases)

But don’t take just our word for it: Federal Minister himself had this to say: